A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
