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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd